Many of us in the West desperately have been trying to decipher Iran's military/nuclear strategy. Just what are Ahmedinajed and the Mullahs trying to accomplish by announcing their nuclear intentions to the world?
Are they trying to develop a nuclear blackmail option, a la North Korea, so to consolidate their hold on power? Are they attempting a brilliant diplomatic strategy aimed at expanding their influence in the Middle East? Or are they truly insane, trying to goad Israel or America into a nuclear face off?
All these scenarios sound plausible on paper, but I'm not sure I agree with any of them. The first two possibilities would clearly befit a rational decision maker, but Iran's leaders are far from rational. No, they're not crazy either, but like many power-hungry autocrats, they possess a reckless megalomania to the point of delusion. Just listen, for example, to the way Ahmadinejad speaks. Addressing the U.N. in September, he believed a light surrounded him as though he carried a divine message.
This leads me towards only one conclusion: Iran's leaders are so confident in their mission and abilities that they sincerely believe they can conquer the West. They don't care what we know or think of their plans (and if anything, they'll brag about it); they see the result as inevitable, and nothing else matters.
Yes, they are entirely deluded from reality, but that is exactly the danger. The Mullahs believe so strongly in their ultimate victory that, in all likelihood, they could care less about being counterattacked. If they develop nuclear weapons, they most certainly plan to use them because they sincerely believe they'll win through such an attack.
Iran's nuclear program must be stopped immediately, before it's too late. Visit the Iran Freedom Foundation for ways to help.
When the US initially stated they wanted to go to war with Iraq to disarm and shut down their alleged nuclear weapons development plans, many of the other UN countries protested. However, Iran seems to be a very different situation than Iraq, especially because Iran is clearly making it known that they are preceding with their nuclear weapons development. Solid Surfer, how do you envision this issue with Iran being resolved? Is Iran next on the US's military agenda? Can America involve itself in another military conflict?
Posted by: Mini Me | January 19, 2006 at 11:11 PM
I believe that it is a little of all three scenarios listed above. First of all, they are the 4th largest oil producer so they have a sufficient bankroll to sustain themselves through any embargo. Second, they seem anxious to thrust themselves into a position of power within the Middle East and the world. Third and I believe most concerning is their willingness to blackmail anybody that threatens their "destiny" to become a world power. They are crazy like a fox in that unlike North Korea, they don't need to use nukes to barter for or blackmail for food, fuel or economic support. They will use them as a means to hold a hammer over the West to whatever means they have in mind. As dependent as we are on Mid-East oil, to what end will they go to threaten our oil supply or our livelihood in order to put the West down? It is my assertion that they want to humble the US & Britain at any cost and in doing so claim victory. That victory in their mind (and to the entire Muslim world) would put them on top of the world. To paraphrase someone on late night TV, “there is nothing scarier than a people or country that believes in reincarnation that has nuclear weapons”. In this case though, it is not reincarnation, but willingness to get to their afterlife that is frightening.
Posted by: tom | January 20, 2006 at 07:56 AM
hey, wait a minute.
the majority of indian's [hindu's] believe in reincarnation. yet, i do not fear them posessing nukes. indeed, i am heartened that the middle east is buffered between two nuclear democracies, india and israel.
and we all know, when the s*&# hits the fan, they will side with the west.
Posted by: nukh | January 20, 2006 at 09:25 AM
sorry, i meant indians and hindus.
Posted by: nukh | January 20, 2006 at 09:27 AM
I certainly hope the situation can be resolved without a military conflict, although I'll have to admit I'm doubtful that'll be the case.
The Mullahs probably won't back down, no matter the negotiations, sanctions, or anything. But there's also great opposition to them within the country, and their government is in danger of falling at anytime. That, as I see it, would be the best case scenario, and perhaps only a small push by the U.S. is needed to make it happen.
Just in the last year, this approach worked in Ukraine, Georgia (the former Soviet state), and Lebanon, so it's definitely a possibility in Iran. But we need it to happen ASAP.
Posted by: Solid Surfer | January 21, 2006 at 04:57 PM
The man who views the world at 50 the same as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life. Do you agree?
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