According to Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin (a premium intelligence newsletter that's part of WorldNetDaily), Iran plans to respond to any American attack on its nuclear facilities by deploying Al Qaeda sleeper agents to detonate Soviet-era suitcase-size nuclear devices (purchased on the black market) in American cities. This information, as reported by G2 contributor Paul Williams (himself the author of a book on the same topic), comes from Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir, who heard it directly from an Egyptian engineer who worked on nuclear tests for Osama Bin Laden.
Is this credible? If so, it's mighty scary stuff, especially since Mir claims that the sleeper agents and nukes are already in America, with the agents simply waiting for orders.
I'm not quite sure, though, that I buy the theory. Certainly the intention exists - Iran and Al Qaeda would nuke America in a heartbeat if they had the capability. But this also pokes a great hole in Mir's claims, because if the weapons have already been smuggled into our cities, then why wait? If Iran wants to defeat the U.S. (and no question, it does), then it would make full sense to attack first, before America could strike back, rather than responding only after absorbing a hit.
Williams has responded to this in the past by claiming that Al Qaeda is simply patient, as Bin Laden prefers to wait so he can attack on meaningful dates. But even if that's true, every new day increases the possibility of any plot being discovered, which strongly points against waiting. Indeed, Williams has been advocating his theory for several years, which is more than enough time for Bin Laden's favored dates to occur, and yet nothing happened.
So no, I don't believe that suitcase nukes have already been deployed to America. Admittedly I can't declare this with full certainty, but the evidence certainly seems to point against it. Nevertheless, we absolutely shouldn't get comfortable, as the terrorists are no doubt trying, and if Iran succeeds in creating nuclear weapons themselves, the risk will increase dramatically. (I think, in fact, that Iran could be spreading the sleeper agent rumors as misinformation, to try and deter the U.S. from attacking while the Mullahs are still pre-nuclear and vulnerable.)
Our best course of action, then, remains as it has been: pursue and defeat all terrorists, and stop Iran's nuclear program ASAP. They're moving full speed ahead, and we're the ones who can't afford to be patient.
Solid Surfer,
I think the contents of your post are interesting and at the same time terrifying. I think your point about the fact that the longer the supposed secret agents within the US wait, the chances of them getting caught is increased is valid. However, perhaps if these agents are currently in the US, Al Qaeda would prefer these people to stay in the US and set them off perhaps in 5 or 10 years as opposed to now. If no terrorist attacks occur again in the US, and in 10 years these attacks suddenly take place all over the country, it seems it would be much more dramatic and cause a greater scare as by that time the events of 9/11 would be almost 15 years old and perhaps terrorism would not be on our minds as much at it is now.
Overall though I don't buy this story and I won't lose any sleep over it.
Posted by: Mini Me | April 29, 2006 at 10:21 PM
I don't think Al Qaeda is patient enough to wait 10-15 years. The way the U.S. military is going after them, they know their days could be numbered, and they're likely focused on planning for the far shorter term.
Also, the article states that Al Qaeda here is simply doing Iran's bidding. Given Iran's intentions, they'd hit the U.S. immediately if they could, so I think it's reasonable to assume that right now, they don't have the capability.
Posted by: Solid Surfer | May 01, 2006 at 10:35 PM