Will the U.S. Really Attack Iran?

Will the U.S. really attack Iran? That's the word from investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, who reports that President Bush has drawn up plans to destroy the Islamic Republic's nuclear program through tactical nukes of America's own. Bush administration officials, however, deny the plans and insist that they will continue to pursue a diplomatic approach.

So what's actually going on?

Now that Iran has successfully enriched uranium, U.S. war planners certainly must have considered numerous scenarios, including, yes, a nuclear strike on their weapons facilities. This doesn't mean, however, that a nuclear attack is the most likely option, no matter what "proof" Hersh claims to have. This same man, after all, has carved a career out of delivering sensational reports on the U.S. government and military, and he often relies on anonymous and unsubstantiated evidence.

At the same time, though, we shouldn't rule a nuke strike out. Many prominent analysts (including the pseudonymous Spengler of the Asia Times) do believe that Iran threatens only its immediate neighborhood in pursuit of regional hegemony, and does not necessarily aim to attack America. But I wholeheartedly disagree. Not that Iran doesn't want regional hegemony (something the U.S. would need to address in any case), but based on certain statements by their president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, they seem cocky enough to believe that they truly can defeat America as well.

Sure, Ahmadinejad may be nuts, but when evil rulers say such things, we should absolutely believe them. No one took Hitler seriously when he announced plans to conquer the globe and kill Jews, and the world suffered through World War II as a result. No one took the Soviets seriously when they vowed to crush the West, and America endured a lengthy cold war. Ahmadinejad has made his intentions to destroy Israel and take down America no less clear, and we would be fools to ignore him. Allowing this madman to possess nuclear weapons would be the height of folly.

Given this, it is imperative that the U.S. and/or Israel destroys Iran's nuclear program before it's too late. No matter how it's done -- whether through diplomacy (which becomes unlikelier by the day), an internal Iranian revolution, targeted airstrikes, or full-scale war -- stopping their entrance to the nuclear club is America's, and the world's, most vital security concern.

Comments

[Verdant]

Hi Surfer,

I agree wholeheartedly. The only question should be, how, by whom and when.

THe when should be whenever our intelligence (a non sequitur?) indicates Iran is sufficiently close enough to warrant a strike (timeperiod "X"). Diplomacy has absolutely nothing to do with the decision. If Iran is still pursuing nukes when timeperiod "X" arrives we strike. If it is not, for whatever reason (self interest, regime change, diplomacy, etc.) we curtail.

The who is whatever entity is best suited to accomplish the mission with minimal collateral, economic and political damage.

The answer to "how" is the same as the answer to "who" except that a methodology is substituted for an entity.

Great post!

[nanc]

afternoon everybody, this just in regarding iran threatening israel - AGAIN:

http://news.yahoo.com/fc/world/iran

iran can never be trusted to do what's right.

[Freedom Now]

Iran has attacked the US numerous times and continues to inflame tensions in Iraq, having an unknown influence on Sadr's aggression against the US during his failed revolt and seizure of the holy city of Najaf. It is known that Iran bankrolls and trains the Sadr Militia.

The country will continue to be the agressor, despite its military inferiority, until they no longer believe that they can manipulate "dissent" from American Liberals.

If Iran was really smart they would realize that an alliance with the US would be an advantage against their Sunni enemies. Our friendship with Saudi Arabia shows that we could still tolerate such an alliance with a Muslim country while they are hostile to our ally Israel.

However, they are ideological fanatics and poor strategists.

[Solid Surfer]

Iran hates Sunnis, but they hate non-Muslims more. That said, Saudi Arabia and the other Arab gulf states feel very threatened by Iran, in large part due to the Sunni/Shiite split.

Given this, the U.S. has an opportunity to exploit this big time - say, by telling the Saudis we'll protect them from Iran, but only under the condition that they become a free society (allowing women to have rights, allowing the practice of other religions, etc.) and quit funding (and even repudiate) Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism.

The Saudis wouldn't be happy to have to make such a decision, but I think they'd gladly do all of it if it meant preserving their country against Iran.