North Korea's Missile Test and Stopping Kim Jong-Il

Another day, another missile. That's apparently what Kim Jong-Il and the fanatics in North Korea want the rest of the world to fear, having just launched seven Taepodong 2 test missiles into the Sea of Japan.

As such, both East Asia and the United States are on high alert, with the U.N. Security Council (who somehow found time away from their disgustingly continuous Israel-bashing) condemning the launch and America scrambling to activate its missile-defense system.

Given North Korea's confirmed possession of nuclear weapons, this is a clearly a serious issue. But also given the nation's small size and limited non-nuclear offensive capabilities, we must ask ourselves - just what are their intentions? The Communist state's strength is miniscule compared to both the U.S. and its surrounding neighbors (China, Japan, South Korea, Russia), and even a dictator as unstable as Kim likely favors self-preservation enough to avoid tempting bigger powers with a nuclear exchange.

So why the missile launch? Could Kim merely be delusionally overconfident like Iran's President Ahmadinejad? Is he genuinely just bonkers as many have claimed? Perhaps he pines to recapture Communism's glory days of the Soviet Union years? Or does he have something truly sinister in mind, such as an EMP attack over the American heartland?

North Korea's government has hinted at very little, but I believe the answer is actually none of the above. Rather, Kim's regime feels pressured by the capitalistic successes surrounding it (particularly South Korea and Japan), and merely wishes to remain in power via nuclear deterrent. Hence, unlike with Iran (where any nuclear possesion is a grave danger that must not be allowed), the North Korean threat to America (and everyone else) can be minimized if properly managed. But poorly handled, it could become disastrous.

Now I know this conclusion may sound naively optimistic, and certainly it is not ideal. (An exponentially better situation would have been Bill Clinton stopping a pre-nuclear Kim when he had the chance.) But after examining the range of possibilities, I do feel it is likely. First, while Kim clearly rules the state fanatically, he is not insane and indeed appears to quite intelligent and rational. Wikipedia reports, for example, that Kim holds an economics degree, systematically consolidated his hold on power, and controls every major detail of North Korea's government operations. Furthermore, he probably doesn't overconfidently aim to defeat the U.S.; unlike Ahmadinejad, Kim is no Muslim utopian (nor, by most accounts, a religious person at all), and as such would not likely risk his life for a war or nuclear brinksmanship. Finally, as the ruler of a small nation surrounded by larger powers, Kim surely must realize that he has virtually no chance of replicating the Soviet Union's past success.

So what's left as an explanation? Protecting his hold on power. Kim is an international pariah, his state is dirt-poor, and his people despise him. What better way to stay on top than with nuclear weapons? North Korea's missile tests, then, are Kim's attempt to remind the world that he's still in charge.

Knowing this, I believe the conflict can be managed the same way the U.S. deterred the Soviets - via mutually assured destruction. America must give Kim an ultimatum that if he launches (or gives to terrorists) a single nuclear missile, we will bomb him back to the stone age. At the same time, just as with the Soviets, we must pressure Kim with economic incentives to free his people. These strategies together can help stabilize North Korea's offensive capabilities while gradually enticing it towards capitalism and democracy.

The bad news, of course, is that Kim has already developed nukes, which presents an instant inherent risk. For this reason, appealing to the U.N. Security Council is a terribly wrong response. China and Russia regularly support Kim specifically to oppose the U.S., and including them in discussions will only prolong the crisis and perhaps even embolden Kim to pull further stunts.

America has one clear way to solve this standoff: Force North Korea to play by our rules rather than playing by theirs. The sooner we do it, the safer we'll be and the sooner the North Korean people will finally receive their much needed freedom.

Comments

[Mini Me]

Do we know the extent of North Korea's missile capabilities? Do they have any weapons that can reach the US?

[Solid Surfer]

They have a missile that can theoretically reach the Western U.S., although it has failed to demonstrate such capabilities in live tests. But the more time goes by, the more they'll improve their missiles, so I think it's imperative that the U.S. takes charge immediately.